Warming events projected to become more frequent and last longer across Antarctica

authored by

Sarah Feron, Raúl R. Cordero, Alessandro Damiani, Avni Malhotra, Gunther Seckmeyer, Pedro Llanillo

Abstract

Summer temperatures are often above freezing along the Antarctic coastline, which makes ice shelves and coastal snowpacks vulnerable to warming events (understood as periods of consecutive days with warmer than usual conditions). Here, we project changes in the frequency, duration and amplitude of summertime warming events expected until end of century according to two emission scenarios. By using both global and regional climate models, we found that these events are expected to be more frequent and last longer, continent-wide. By end of century, the number of warming events is projected to double in most of West Antarctica and to triple in the vast interior of East Antarctica, even under a moderate-emission scenario. We also found that the expected rise of warming events in coastal areas surrounding the continent will likely lead to enhanced surface melt, which may pose a risk for the future stability of several Antarctic ice shelves.

Organisation(s)

Institute of Meteorology and Climatology

External Organisation(s)

University of Groningen
Universidad de Santiago de Chile
Chiba University
Universität Zürich (UZH)
Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research

Type

Article

Journal

Scientific reports

Volume

11

ISSN

2045-2322

Publication date

01.10.2021

Publication status

Published

Peer reviewed

Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 13 - Climate Action

Electronic version(s)

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98619-z (Access: Open)