Actors and factors in land-use simulation

The challenge of urban shrinkage

authored by

Dagmar Haase, Annegret Haase, Nadja Kabisch, Sigrun Kabisch, Dieter Rink

Abstract

Both modelers and social scientists attempt to find better explanations of complex urban systems. They include development paths, underlying driving forces and their expected impacts. So far, land-use research has predominantly focused on urban growth. However, new challenges have arisen since urban shrinkage entered the research agenda of the social and land-use sciences. Therefore, the focus of this paper is a twofold one: Using the example of urban shrinkage, we first discuss the capacity of existing land-use modeling approaches to integrate new social science knowledge in terms of land-use, demography and governance because social science models are indispensable for accurately explaining the processes behind shrinkage. Second, we discuss the combination of system dynamics (SD), cellular automata (CA) and agent-based model (ABM) approaches to cover the main characteristics, processes and patterns of urban shrinkage. Using Leipzig, Germany, as a case study, we provide the initial results of a joint SD-CA model and an ABM that both operationalize social science knowledge regarding urban shrinkage.

External Organisation(s)

Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (HU Berlin)
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ)
Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health

Type

Article

Journal

Environmental Modelling and Software

Volume

35

Pages

92-103

No. of pages

12

ISSN

1364-8152

Publication date

07.2012

Publication status

Published

Peer reviewed

Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Software, Environmental Engineering, Ecological Modelling

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities, SDG 15 - Life on Land

Electronic version(s)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.02.012 (Access: Unknown)