Modelling flood regulation ecosystem services dynamics based on climate and land use information

authored by: Thea Wübbelmann, Steffen Bender, Benjamin Burkhard
Abstract: The concept of ecosystem service (ES) identifies benefits that people obtain from ecosystems with contributions to human well-being. One important ES under external pressure is “flood regulation” that describes an ecosystem’s capacity to reduce flood hazards. Several related studies estimate current flood regulation ES. However, regional climate projections indicate a shift in precipitation patterns. Therefore, Climate and land use changes make it necessary to assess future supply in order to test functionality and adaptation measures. This study focuses on surface retention ES. We used two methods to show the relevance of different landscape scenarios and climate information for flood regulation ES supply: 1) hydraulic simulations with the model HEC-RAS 2) the flood retention capacity indicator suggested by the German MAES-Working group. We simulated two events: the historic flood of 2013 and future hypothetically 10% higher water levels. Furthermore, three land use change scenarios were evaluated. The model results indicate water accumulation by vegetation. Higher water levels of future climate scenarios lead to an increase in flooded areas and higher water volumes. To evaluate flood regulation capacities, an approach solely based on 2D retention areas, such as the MAES-indicator, is not sufficient. Modelling approaches deliver the opportunity for future scenario simulations.
Organisation(s): Institute of Physical Geography and Landscape Ecology
Physical Geography Group
External Organisation(s): Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS)
Type: Article
Journal: Landscape Online
Volume: 88
Pages: 1-16
No. of pages: 16
ISSN: 1865-1542
Publication date: 06.02.2021
Publication status: Published
Peer reviewed: Yes
ASJC Scopus subject areas: Nature and Landscape Conservation, Ecology
Sustainable Development Goals: SDG 13 - Climate Action, SDG 15 - Life on Land
Electronic version(s): https://doi.org/10.3097/LO.202188 (Access: Open)