Storylines of combined future land use and climate scenarios and their hydrological impacts in an Alpine catchment (Brixental/Austria)

authored by: Ulrich Strasser, Kristian Förster, Herbert Formayer, Florentin Hofmeister, Thomas Marke, Gertraud Meißl, Imran Nadeem, Rike Stotten, Markus Schermer
Abstract: In this paper, the hydrological impacts of future socio-economic and climatic development are assessed for a regional-scale Alpine catchment (Brixental, Tyrol, Austria). Therefore, coupled storylines of future land use and climate scenarios were developed in a transdisciplinary stakeholder process by means of questionnaire analyses and interviews with local experts from various relevant societal sectors. Resulting future land use maps for each decade were used as spatial input in the hydrological model WaSiM, to which a new module for the consideration of snow-canopy interaction processes has been added. Simulation results for three developed storylines, each combined with a moderate (A1B) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate future, show that in a warmer and dryer climate the amount of annual simulated streamflow at the gauge of the catchment undergoes a significant reduction. The (mainly natural) reforestation of the catchment – caused by abandonment of previously cultivated areas – leads to additional losses of water by enhanced interception and evapotranspiration processes. Further cultivation of the current mountain pasture areas has a certain potential to attenuate undesirable long-term impacts of climate change on the catchment water balance.
Organisation(s): Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management
External Organisation(s): University of Innsbruck
University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences (BOKU)
Type: Article
Journal: Science of the Total Environment
Volume: 657
Pages: 746-763
No. of pages: 18
ISSN: 0048-9697
Publication date: 20.03.2019
Publication status: Published
Peer reviewed: Yes
ASJC Scopus subject areas: Environmental Engineering, Environmental Chemistry, Waste Management and Disposal, Pollution
Sustainable Development Goals: SDG 13 - Climate Action, SDG 15 - Life on Land
Electronic version(s): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.077 (Access: Closed)