Diversifying European agglomerations

Evidence of urban population trends for the 21st century

authored by

Nadja Kabisch, Dagmar Haase

Abstract

The beginning of the 21st century marks the first time in history that more than half of the world's population lives in urban areas. In Europe, more than 70% of the population lives in urban areas today. This number is likely to increase to 84% by 2050. However, a shift from growth to decline of urban population is already present for a growing number of cities. The paper examines urban population trends for 158 European agglomerations and assesses the dynamics behind one particular development of growth or decline. Using data from 1991 to 2004, we present statistical evidence of diversifying population trajectories for core cities and fringe areas. The quantitative results are contrasted with the widespread accepted cyclical urbanisation model that has been expounded as a theoretical approach to describe previous and future stages of European urban development. The structural approach of the model is discussed because we believe that such concepts do not reflect the dynamics of present urban development in Europe. The paper argues that the urban agglomerations studied do not show a single evolutionary stage of urban development. Rather, we found a coexistence of intensifying suburbanisation and developing reurbanisation, which is mainly driven by younger households.

External Organisation(s)

Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ)
Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health

Type

Article

Journal

Population, space and place

Volume

17

Pages

236-253

No. of pages

18

ISSN

1544-8444

Publication date

05.2011

Publication status

Published

Peer reviewed

Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Demography, Geography, Planning and Development

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities

Electronic version(s)

https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.600 (Access: Unknown)