Effects of climate change on pest-parasitoid dynamics

Development of a simulation model and first results

authored by: Konstanze Gebauer, Lia Hemerik, Rainer Meyhöfer
Abstract: The influence of predicted climatic change on agricultural pest and beneficial insect species is of high importance for growers since increasing temperatures may have a direct impact on the developmental rates of insect populations. These parameters are species-specific and result in variable reactions to climate change, potentially disrupting the synchrony of pest-parasitoid dynamics. This study investigated the effect of increasing temperatures caused by climate change on the population dynamics of the mealy cabbage aphid Brevicoryne brassicae, a worldwide occurring pest species in cruciferous crops, and the endoparasitoid Diaeretiella rapae. For three vegetable growing regions in lower Saxony, the population development of both species was simulated for (1) the near future (2041–2050), (2) the far future (2090–2099) and (3) the reference time period (1991– 2000), using an age structured simulation model including simulated temperature data. An earlier first occurrence of D. rapae in spring compared to B. brassicae was shown, however with no disruption of the synchrony between the two populations. Despite the earlier occurrence and increased population size of D. rapae in future periods, B. brassicae maximum population size also increased. Furthermore, an earlier occurrence of alate aphids during the season resulted from the model, indicating a potential need to adapt pest management.
Organisation(s): Phytomedicine Section
Institute of Horticultural Production Systems
External Organisation(s): Wageningen University and Research
Type: Article
Journal: Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection
Volume: 122
Pages: 28-35
No. of pages: 8
ISSN: 1861-3829
Publication date: 2015
Publication status: Published
Peer reviewed: Yes
ASJC Scopus subject areas: Agronomy and Crop Science, Plant Science, Horticulture
Sustainable Development Goals: SDG 13 - Climate Action
Electronic version(s): https://doi.org/10.1007/bf03356527 (Access: Closed)