Spatiotemporal variable selection and air quality impact assessment of COVID-19 lockdown

authored by

Alessandro Fassò, Paolo Maranzano, Philipp Otto

Abstract

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemics in 2020, lockdown policies reduced human mobility in many countries globally. This significantly reduces car traffic-related emissions. In this paper, we consider the impact of the Italian restrictions (lockdown) on the air quality in the Lombardy Region. In particular, we consider public data on concentrations of particulate matters (PM

₁₀ and PM

_2.5) and nitrogen dioxide, pre/during/after lockdown. To reduce the effect of confounders, we use detailed regression function based on meteorological, land and calendar information. Spatial and temporal correlations are handled using a multivariate spatiotemporal model in the class of hidden dynamic geostatistical models (HDGM). Due to the large size of the design matrix, variable selection is made using a hybrid approach coupling the well known LASSO algorithm with the cross-validation performance of HDGM. The impact of COVID-19 lockdown is heterogeneous in the region. Indeed, there is high statistical evidence of nitrogen dioxide concentration reductions in metropolitan areas and near trafficked roads where also PM

₁₀ concentration is reduced. However, rural, industrial, and mountain areas do not show significant reductions. Also, PM

_2.5 concentrations lack significant reductions irrespective of zone. The post-lockdown restart shows unclear results.

Organisation(s)

Institute of Cartography and Geoinformatics

External Organisation(s)

Universita di Bergamo (UniBg)

Type

Article

Journal

Spatial statistics

Volume

ISSN

2211-6753

Publication date

06.2022

Publication status

Published

Peer reviewed

Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Statistics and Probability, Computers in Earth Sciences, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities, SDG 15 - Life on Land

Electronic version(s)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2021.100549 (Access: Closed)