Hysterie und Hysterese

Die Asylmigration und der Erfolg der Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)

authored by

Markus Klein, Frederik Springer

Abstract

The number of asylum requests made in Germany increased significantly in the years 2015 and 2016. It is largely undisputed that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has benefited politically from this development. It remains unclear, however, whether a temporary increase in the number of asylum applications will increase the electoral chances of the AfD only in the short term (hysteria hypothesis) or in the long term (hysteresis hypothesis). The expectation of a lasting effect is justified by the fact that an asylum application ultimately indicates the immigration of an asylum-seeker into the territory of the Federal Republic of Germany and suggests that this person is likely to remain there. The hysteria and hysteresis hypotheses are empirically examined based on time-series data for the period April 2013 to December 2019. Both hypotheses are confirmed. The AfD benefits in the short term from an increase in the number of asylum applications. At the same time, however, AfD support also depends on the number of people currently seeking protection in Germany. The effect of the number of asylum seekers is stronger than the effect of the current number of asylum applications.

Organisation(s)

Institute of Political Science

Type

Article

Journal

Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie

Volume

72

Pages

455-470

No. of pages

16

ISSN

0023-2653

Publication date

01.09.2020

Publication status

Published

Peer reviewed

Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Social Psychology, Sociology and Political Science

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 10 - Reduced Inequalities

Electronic version(s)

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11577-020-00710-2 (Access: Closed)
https://doi.org/10.15488/16283 (Access: Open)
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11577-021-00788-2 (Access: Open)