The effect of migration on terror

Made at home or imported from abroad?

authored by

Axel Dreher, Martin Gassebner, Paul Schaudt

Abstract

We analyze how a country's immigrant population—defined as the stock of people born abroad—affects the probability of a terrorist attack in the host country. Using data for 20 OECD host countries and 183 countries of origin over the 1980–2010 period our OLS and 2SLS regressions show that the probability that immigrants from a specific country of origin conduct a terrorist attack in their host country increases with a larger number of foreigners from such countries living there. However, this scale effect does not differ from the effect domestic populations have on domestic terror. We find scarce evidence that terror is systematically imported from countries with large Muslim populations or countries where terror networks prevail. Policies that exclude foreigners already living in a country increase rather than reduce the risk that foreign populations turn violent, and so do terrorist attacks against foreigners in their host country. Highly skilled migrants are associated with a significantly lower risk of terror compared with low skilled ones, while there is no significant difference between foreign-born men and women.

Organisation(s)

Institute of Macroeconomics

External Organisation(s)

Heidelberg University
University of Göttingen
Centre for Economic Policy Research, London
University of St. Gallen (HSG)

Type

Article

Journal

Canadian Journal of Economics

Volume

53

Pages

1703-1744

No. of pages

42

ISSN

0008-4085

Publication date

07.12.2020

Publication status

Published

Peer reviewed

Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Economics and Econometrics

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 16 - Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Electronic version(s)

https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12469 (Access: Open)