When to expect a coup d’état?

An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants

authored by

Martin Gassebner, Jerg Gutmann, Stefan Voigt

Abstract

Over the last several decades, both economists and political scientists have shown interest in coups d’état. Numerous studies have been dedicated to understanding the causes of coups. However, model uncertainty still looms large. About one hundred potential determinants of coups have been proposed, but no consensus has emerged on an established baseline model for analyzing coups. We address this problem by testing the sensitivity of inferences to over three million model permutations in an extreme bounds analysis. Overall, we test the robustness of 66 factors proposed in the empirical literature based on a monthly sample of 164 countries that covers the years 1952–2011. We find that slow economic growth rates, previous coup experiences, and other forms of political violence to be particularly conducive to inciting coups.

Organisation(s)

Institute of Macroeconomics

External Organisation(s)

ETH Zurich
Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH
Universität Hamburg

Type

Article

Journal

PUBLIC CHOICE

Volume

169

Pages

293-313

No. of pages

21

ISSN

0048-5829

Publication date

01.12.2016

Publication status

Published

Peer reviewed

Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Sociology and Political Science, Economics and Econometrics

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 8 - Decent Work and Economic Growth, SDG 16 - Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Electronic version(s)

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-016-0365-0 (Access: Closed)