Simulation and risk evaluation of possible superstorms hitting Europe's north sea coast

authored by

Yuankang Sun, Marius Bittner, Yi Zhang, Michael Beer

Abstract

Due to climate change, the European coast needs to be reassessed regarding safety factors against natural disasters such as tropical cyclones, superstorms, floods, and the general rise in sea level. Within this work, a data-driven model to simulate artificial superstorm events that might hit the German north sea coast is established. By revisiting a historical storm event, namely "Ophelia", a stochastic model has been derived which enables the prediction of wind speed and water level for specific locations of interest. The simulation is carried out using a hybrid coupled model (ADCIRC+SWAN) which combines wind speed propagation, wave propagation, and wave heights. In the end, this model shall provide the basis for a new safety assessment of the German north sea coasts, with the aim of reducing the risk to residents and minimizing economic damage by proposing suitable countermeasures for possible severe weather or flood events.

Organisation(s)

Institute for Risk and Reliability

External Organisation(s)

Tsinghua University
Tongji University
University of Liverpool

Type

Conference contribution

Pages

629-634

No. of pages

6

Publication date

09.2022

Publication status

Published

Peer reviewed

Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality, Management Science and Operations Research

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 13 - Climate Action

Electronic version(s)

https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-5184-1_MS-19-105-cd (Access: Closed)