Simulation and risk evaluation of possible superstorms hitting Europe's north sea coast

verfasst von

Yuankang Sun, Marius Bittner, Yi Zhang, Michael Beer

Abstract

Due to climate change, the European coast needs to be reassessed regarding safety factors against natural disasters such as tropical cyclones, superstorms, floods, and the general rise in sea level. Within this work, a data-driven model to simulate artificial superstorm events that might hit the German north sea coast is established. By revisiting a historical storm event, namely "Ophelia", a stochastic model has been derived which enables the prediction of wind speed and water level for specific locations of interest. The simulation is carried out using a hybrid coupled model (ADCIRC+SWAN) which combines wind speed propagation, wave propagation, and wave heights. In the end, this model shall provide the basis for a new safety assessment of the German north sea coasts, with the aim of reducing the risk to residents and minimizing economic damage by proposing suitable countermeasures for possible severe weather or flood events.

Organisationseinheit(en)

Institut für Risiko und Zuverlässigkeit

Externe Organisation(en)

Tsinghua University
Tongji University
The University of Liverpool

Typ

Aufsatz in Konferenzband

Seiten

629-634

Anzahl der Seiten

6

Publikationsdatum

09.2022

Publikationsstatus

Veröffentlicht

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Sicherheit, Risiko, Zuverlässigkeit und Qualität, Managementlehre und Operations Resarch

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

SDG 13 – Klimaschutzmaßnahmen

Elektronische Version(en)

https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-5184-1_MS-19-105-cd (Zugang: Geschlossen)