Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems

authored by

Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, Hannes Taubenböck

Abstract

Landslides are socio-natural hazards. In Colombia, for example, these are the most frequent hazards. The interplay of climate change and the mostly informal growth of cities in landslide-prone areas increases the associated risks. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are essential for disaster risk reduction, but the monitoring component is often based on expensive sensor systems. This study presents a data-driven approach to localize landslide-prone areas suitable for low-cost and easy-to-use LEWS instrumentation, as well as to estimate the associated costs. The approach is exemplified in the landslide-prone city of Medellín, Colombia. A workflow that enables decision-makers to balance financial costs and the potential to protect exposed populations is introduced. To achieve this, city-level landslide susceptibility is mapped using data on hazard levels, landslide inventories, geological and topographic factors, and a random forest model. Then, the landslide susceptibility map is combined with a population density map to identify highly exposed areas. Subsequently, a cost function is defined to estimate the cost of LEWS monitoring sensors at the selected sites, using lessons learned from a pilot LEWS in Bello Oriente, a neighbourhood in Medellín. This study estimates that LEWS monitoring sensors could be installed in several landslide-prone areas with a budget ranging from EUR5 to EUR41 per person (roughly COP23000 to 209000), improving the resilience of over 190000 exposed individuals, 81% of whom are located in precarious neighbourhoods; thus, the systems would particularly reduce the risks of a social group of very high vulnerability. The synopsis of all information allows us to provide recommendations for stakeholders on where to proceed with LEWS instrumentation. These are based on five different cost-effectiveness scenarios. This approach enables decision-makers to prioritize LEWS deployment to protect exposed populations while balancing the financial costs, particularly for those in precarious neighbourhoods. Finally, the limitations, challenges, and opportunities for the successful implementation of a LEWS are discussed.

Organisation(s)

Institute of Landscape Architecture

External Organisation(s)

German Aerospace Center (DLR)
Technical University of Munich (TUM)
Company for Remote Sensing and Environmental Research (SLU)
Geological Society of Colombia (CGS)
AlpGeorisk
Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg

Type

Article

Journal

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Volume

23

Pages

3913-3930

No. of pages

18

ISSN

1561-8633

Publication date

24.12.2023

Publication status

Published

Peer reviewed

Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Earth and Planetary Sciences

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities, SDG 13 - Climate Action

Electronic version(s)

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023 (Access: Open)