Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems

verfasst von

Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, Hannes Taubenböck

Abstract

Landslides are socio-natural hazards. In Colombia, for example, these are the most frequent hazards. The interplay of climate change and the mostly informal growth of cities in landslide-prone areas increases the associated risks. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are essential for disaster risk reduction, but the monitoring component is often based on expensive sensor systems. This study presents a data-driven approach to localize landslide-prone areas suitable for low-cost and easy-to-use LEWS instrumentation, as well as to estimate the associated costs. The approach is exemplified in the landslide-prone city of Medellín, Colombia. A workflow that enables decision-makers to balance financial costs and the potential to protect exposed populations is introduced. To achieve this, city-level landslide susceptibility is mapped using data on hazard levels, landslide inventories, geological and topographic factors, and a random forest model. Then, the landslide susceptibility map is combined with a population density map to identify highly exposed areas. Subsequently, a cost function is defined to estimate the cost of LEWS monitoring sensors at the selected sites, using lessons learned from a pilot LEWS in Bello Oriente, a neighbourhood in Medellín. This study estimates that LEWS monitoring sensors could be installed in several landslide-prone areas with a budget ranging from EUR5 to EUR41 per person (roughly COP23000 to 209000), improving the resilience of over 190000 exposed individuals, 81% of whom are located in precarious neighbourhoods; thus, the systems would particularly reduce the risks of a social group of very high vulnerability. The synopsis of all information allows us to provide recommendations for stakeholders on where to proceed with LEWS instrumentation. These are based on five different cost-effectiveness scenarios. This approach enables decision-makers to prioritize LEWS deployment to protect exposed populations while balancing the financial costs, particularly for those in precarious neighbourhoods. Finally, the limitations, challenges, and opportunities for the successful implementation of a LEWS are discussed.

Organisationseinheit(en)

Institut für Landschaftsarchitektur

Externe Organisation(en)

Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)
Technische Universität München (TUM)
Sachverständigenbüro für Luftbildauswertung und Umweltfragen (SLU)
Geological Society of Colombia (CGS)
AlpGeorisk
Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg

Typ

Artikel

Journal

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Band

23

Seiten

3913-3930

Anzahl der Seiten

18

ISSN

1561-8633

Publikationsdatum

24.12.2023

Publikationsstatus

Veröffentlicht

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Allgemeine Erdkunde und Planetologie

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

SDG 11 – Nachhaltige Städte und Gemeinschaften, SDG 13 – Klimaschutzmaßnahmen

Elektronische Version(en)

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023 (Zugang: Offen)