Future land use and land cover in Southern Amazonia and resulting greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural soils

verfasst von

Jan Göpel, Jan Schüngel, Rüdiger Schaldach, Katharina H.E. Meurer, Hermann F. Jungkunst, Uwe Franko, Jens Boy, Robert Strey, Simone Strey, Georg Guggenberger, Anna Hampf, Phillip Parker

Abstract

The calculation of robust estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions due to agriculture is essential to support the framing of the Brazilian climate change mitigation policy. Information on the future development of land use and land cover change (LULCC) under the combination of various driving factors operating at different spatial scale levels, e.g., local land use policy and global demands for agricultural commodities, is required. The spatially explicit land use model, LandSHIFT, was applied to calculate a set of high-resolution land use scenarios for Southern Amazonia. The time frame of the analysis was 2010–2030. Based on the generated maps, emission coefficients were applied to calculate annual N₂O, CH₄, and CO₂ emissions from agricultural soils (croplands and pastures). The results indicate that future land use pattern and the resultant greenhouse gas emissions in Southern Amazonia will be strongly determined by global and regional demands for agricultural commodities, as well as by the level of intensification of agriculture and the implementation of conservation policies.

Organisationseinheit(en)

Institut für Bodenkunde
AG Bodenchemie

Externe Organisation(en)

Universität Kassel
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Universität Koblenz-Landau
Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF) e.V.
Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ)

Typ

Artikel

Journal

Regional environmental change

Band

18

Seiten

129-142

Anzahl der Seiten

14

ISSN

1436-3798

Publikationsdatum

25.10.2017

Publikationsstatus

Veröffentlicht

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Globaler Wandel

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

SDG 13 – Klimaschutzmaßnahmen, SDG 15 – Lebensraum Land

Elektronische Version(en)

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1235-0 (Zugang: Geschlossen)