Regional Supply and Demand Fundamentals in the German Housing Price Boom

verfasst von

Lars Brausewetter, Stephan L. Thomsen, Johannes Trunzer

Abstract

Over the last decade, German housing prices have increased unprecedentedly. Drawing on quality-Adjusted housing price data at the district level, we show that regional fundamentals explain up to two-Thirds of between-region and 77 to 87 percent of within-region variation in price growth. Price increases were driven mainly by co-movements in local demand fundamentals, notably population density and skill level. However, we further reveal systematic variation unrelated to fundamentals: overvaluation of top 7 cities, path dependency, and spatial spillovers. We infer that speculation, investor preference for liquid markets, and bounded rationality contributed substantially to the recent housing price boom in Germany.

Organisationseinheit(en)

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik

Externe Organisation(en)

Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW) Mannheim
Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA)

Typ

Artikel

Journal

German economic review

Band

25

Seiten

1-36

Anzahl der Seiten

36

ISSN

1465-6485

Publikationsdatum

26.02.2024

Publikationsstatus

Veröffentlicht

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

SDG 11 – Nachhaltige Städte und Gemeinschaften

Elektronische Version(en)

https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2023-0063 (Zugang: Geschlossen)