Versorgungsgradprognosen als Baustein einer evidenzbasierten Versorgungsplanung

verfasst von

Stephan L. Thomsen, Kai Ingwersen, Insa Weilage

Abstract

Introduction: As part of the measures to combat the shortage of general practitioners (GPs) particularly in rural areas, health services planning is becoming increasingly important. Methods: This paper shows how the quality of health services planning can be improved by combining population forecasts and physician number forecasts based on the cohort component method. On the basis of already available data (population data and doctors’ registers), developments in the levels of care supply can be predicted on a small regional scale. The regional and temporal differentiation allows for early identification of specific needs for action. However, it is important to consider limitations in the interpretation of results. Results: The example of Lower Saxony shows that by 2035 a decline of more than 20% in the number of GPs is expected. At the same time, regions are affected to varying degrees, and even within the more vulnerable rural areas there are heterogeneous developments which require regionally adapted responses. Conclusion: The greater the gap between supply and demand, the more important high-quality planning for efficient allocation of health services becomes. Against this background, care supply projections can serve as a useful building block of evidence-based care planning.

Organisationseinheit(en)

Center für Wirtschaftspolitische Studien

Externe Organisation(en)

Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW) Mannheim
Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA)

Typ

Artikel

Journal

Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen

Band

162

Seiten

45-54

Anzahl der Seiten

10

ISSN

1865-9217

Publikationsdatum

05.2021

Publikationsstatus

Veröffentlicht

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Medizin (sonstige), Ausbildung bzw. Denomination, Health policy

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

SDG 3 – Gute Gesundheit und Wohlergehen

Elektronische Version(en)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.zefq.2021.02.002 (Zugang: Geschlossen)