Doomed to fail?

Why some land-based investment projects fail

verfasst von

Kerstin Nolte

Abstract

In recent years, an increased interest in farmland globally has led to the emergence of many land-based investment projects. Although most projects enter the production stage, a significant number also ends in failure. This paper asks why land-based investment projects fail. This is a crucial question as failed investment projects are unlikely to have any positive impacts on the host regions. I develop a conceptual framework to understand the determinants of failure and then use project-level data to empirically test these potential determinants drawing on survival analysis. I find that failure occurs globally but is concentrated on the African continent, with some countries exhibiting a particularly high risk of project failure. In addition, larger projects, projects growing agrofuels, and projects targeting land formerly used by smallholders or pastoralists are more likely to fail. In contrast, projects that involve domestic investors or take place in countries with better infrastructure are less likely to fail. The findings on the impact of host-country institutions on project failure are ambiguous and highlight the need for more localized institutional variables to better understand the role of institutions for project failure.

Organisationseinheit(en)

Institut für Wirtschafts- und Kulturgeographie

Externe Organisation(en)

Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien (GIGA)

Typ

Artikel

Journal

Applied geography

Band

122

ISSN

0143-6228

Publikationsdatum

09.2020

Publikationsstatus

Veröffentlicht

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Forstwissenschaften, Geografie, Planung und Entwicklung, Allgemeine Umweltwissenschaft, Tourismus-, Freizeit- und Gastronomiemanagement

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

SDG 15 – Lebensraum Land

Elektronische Version(en)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102268 (Zugang: Geschlossen)